AN OVERVIEW OF
PENNSYLVANIA HIGH SCHOOL
GRADUATES
1976 - 2016 |
  |
- The number of students graduating from Pennsylvania's
public and private secondary schools reached its highest recorded level in
1976. For the next eighteen years through 1994, the Commonwealth experienced a
steady decline in the number of high school graduates, as this demographic age
group declined. Starting in 1995, and for most of the projected years through
2009, a steadily increasing trend in graduate numbers should continue, with a
slight decline for 2009 to 2016. In none of these years are the number of
graduates expected to exceed the numbers seen in 1976, but there will continue
to be changes in the distribution and racial and ethnic mix across the state.
- Based on the most recent actual data from 2004, the
number of Pennsylvania graduates increased by 3,421 (2.5 percent) from the
previous year. The decline since 1976 is 25.8 percent, 48,990 persons. The
increase from 2004 to 2009 is projected to be 3.8 percent, or 5,476
graduates. As we move forward, the six years after 2009 could potentially show
decreases in the graduate numbers.
- The US Census Bureau project, from their 2000 data, that
in Pennsylvania the 18 to 24 year old age group will be around 1,116,000 in
each of the years 2005 and 2016, with the peak being reached somewhere between
those years. By 2025 this age group in Pennsylvania could decline to 1,045,000,
which is less than the size of that population in 1995.
- Through the projected year 2009, the number of graduates
will continue to increase in most years, but the annual increase rates will not
match the magnitude of the corresponding rates of decline seen over the last
fifteen years. From 1980 to the low point in 1994, there was a 38 percent
decrease in the number of graduates. From 1994 to the projected high number in
2009, the increase will be 29 percent.
- The composition of the public and non-public private
schools' 2004 graduating class is shown in the table below. There were 653
public schools and 391 private and non-public schools in Pennsylvania with high
school graduates.
| |
Public
Schools |
Non-Public/Private
Schools |
| American Indian/Alaska Native |
0.08% |
0.07% |
| Asian & Pacific American |
2.39% |
2.92% |
| African/Black American |
11.05% |
7.88% |
| Latino/Hispanic |
3.35% |
2.16% |
| White American |
82.6% |
86.97% |
| All Minority |
17.4% |
13.03% |
| Total Graduates |
123,473 |
17,580 |
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